Winter is coming to Temple! Arctic Blast possible...

Welcome back to TempleWXBlog! We apologize for the long break, times have been busy. We will be back to our normal schedule hopefully before the end of the year.

It has been warm, so warm that a tornado outbreak shaped up across the South causing multiple fatalities. Some folks do welcome the warmer conditions with open arms, but many are feeling some winter blues. I have heard many statements such as: "Georgia does not get winter anymore," "It will never snow here," and "It's always just a cold rain."

I tend to agree that the past several winters have brought very little winter precipitation to our area. Heading into New Year's and the following week, however, a big pattern change is progged to potentially move across the area. Not only could this pattern bring significantly below-average temperatures and an Arctic Blast, but there is also a growing signal for at least a small amount of winter precipitation across the area. Winter weather lovers, read this blog to find out what old man winter is bringing to the south!

Cooldown...

(Weatherbell)

This is our temperature anomaly map. This means these are our temperatures compared to normal. Using the GFS model, you can see that temperatures on January 7 - 14 (or later) will likely be below average. This snapshot is on the 12th, but don't get caught up in the numbers. We are mostly using this map as a reference for how cold it could potentially get rather than an exact forecast.

Below is a map from the EURO model.

(Weatherbell)

This is a map at the same time on the 12th, notice the discrepancy between the 2? The Euro model is almost 10 degrees warmer (while still sitting 15 degrees below average). These differences make us uncertain about how significant cold will be. What we do know at this point is that the pattern is highly favorable for arctic air to dive into the area.

I will hold off showing exact temperatures for now, mostly due to the uncertainty in the forecast.

Local legend James Spann had this to say about the incoming cold:

"At first glance, the cold wave looks similar to the one we experienced in December 2022, when single-digit lows were seen over the northern half of Alabama. But there is a chance this airmass might be even colder as we are seeing analogs to January 1977 and 1982 showing up." "The pattern does look favorable for some type of winter precipitation across the southern U.S. at some point, but there is no way of knowing when or if it happens right now."

(James Spann's Facebook Page)

I agree with Mr. Spann's words, and overall think this has the potential to be a major, even catastrophic, cold blast.

He did mention something else though, and I know many of you have wanted to hear this is in the forecast for a while now...

Winter Precipitation...

(Weatherbell)

This is our Euro ensemble over the next 15 days. As shown, the mean snowfall total is around 2 inches for our area. Again, I want to stress, that don't get caught up on the numbers. Being over 4 days out makes it almost impossible to forecast snow. The big reason I show this is to get the point across that snow is a possibility, how much and where, no idea. TempleWXBlog will keep you updated as time continues.

Summary...

This could be a high-impact cold snap across our area, and could also be relatively long-lived. Preparations should be made at this time for cold weather, specifically for plants. Otherwise, there is no need to stock up on toilet paper and bread from Ingles. The biggest thing we can do now is watch the pattern. TempleWXBlog is dedicated to keeping you informed, and you can stay in the know by subscribing to the blog! You receive updates each time a new blog is released, or an announcement is made.

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Author: Remington Diedrich