Severe Weather is on The Way: Active Pattern Incoming

Have you experienced recent storms? Some people from around Temple did share that same experience, with hail and strong winds in parts of the city happening within the past week or earlier. Reports came in that up to Quarter Sized hail fell in and around the city limits. I think I speak for all of us when I say, I am done with these storms. Unfortunately, the upcoming pattern will only bring more of that.

Let's backtrack just a little, Temple has had no shortage of severe weather over the past few weeks. Storms have led to my homes power going out a few times now, which is an unusual occurrence. Furthermore, many reports came in of small to medium size hail across the county. Some areas around us even saw Tornadoes. The active pattern we have faced has been caused by a series of low pressure systems sliding across the east coast, this latest one stalling over Mississippi and giving us bouts of daily rainfall. That storm sure did look like a hurricane, and brought some gnarly winds too, but it actually wasn't.

We are about to change our weather pattern, but it is certainly not for the better. Severe Weather chances are going to be on the rise coming into this weekend and the following week. You may be wondering, what days will the weather be the worst, what impacts from severe weather are expected, and how long will bad weather take place? I have all the answers in todays weather blog.

Timing...

Nationally speaking, we will have a risk of severe weather from today to potentially mid next week! Will any of that impact us? The short answer is most likely, but now we have to consider what days we would be looking at this potential.

Short Range (Today through Friday)

Overall, we should have at least a few days of recovery from the past few weeks of severe weather.

Here is the forecasted rainfall from this morning through Friday. You can see, not much of any rainfall is expected over the next few days. Basically all of the rainfall you do see is from early this morning. Did anyone else get awoken from all that thunder?

Did the storms this morning wake you up?

• Yes!
• No!

All in all, from now through Friday, we are not anticipating any severe weather. There is a risk of isolated afternoon Thunderstorms this afternoon, but these storms should not pose a significant hazard other than some locally gusty winds. However, Saturday through Monday will be a different story...

Medium Range (Saturday through Monday)

This is the time period I would watch for some strong storms. We are going to enter that anticipated pattern change that will bring a higher chance for not only rainfall but good conditions for severe weather.

Here are our expected rainfall accumulations for our Medium Range time period. You can see, a significantly higher amount of rainfall is expected over this timeframe. Our area could see up to a quarter of an inch of rain. While this is higher than the Short Range, this is still not overly impressive. This past week alone, we have seen at least an inch of rainfall due to that stalled storm system over Mississippi.

What this may indicate is storms being short in nature, this could be pop up storms, which are generally weak and cause low confidence in high rainfall, or could be fast moving stronger storms. We can look at our severe weather ingredients to find out whether these storms will be organized or not.

Ingredients...

This is the first thing I look at when forecasting severe weather. CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is the basic fuel for storms. Think of it as the energy in the atmosphere. The higher the number, the more fuel for storms. You typically look for around 1000 j/kg (Joules per Kilogram) of CAPE, and we have 1000 j/kg - 1500 j/kg. We can certainly check that parameter off the list.

The next ingredient I look for in these types of setups is the amount of wind we have in the upper atmosphere. This is wind, in knots, thousands of feet above our heads. With high CAPE levels, storms now use this wind to organize and can cause strong winds at the ground by using something called mixing. For setups, such as these, you typically want to look for at least 30 knots of wind. You can see using the picture above, we have well over that, -45 knots to be exact.

This wind and CAPE combo gives me confidence that we will have the conditions for severe weather. There are many other factors at play, including dry air above the ground, veering (changing) directions of this wind above the ground, and more. If you would like to see an in depth blog on how to forecast severe weather, leave a comment below.

Based on the timing of all of these conditions and a few others, I think the main day we will have to watch for severe weather is Saturday Afternoon. Keep in mind that this can change as models find out more about this system, so keep your eyes peeled to TempleWXBlog, where we strive to keep you informed. These storms will likely be linear in nature as well, but what does that mean for impacts?

Expected Impacts...

With storms being linear in nature, I expect better mixing of those atmospheric winds to the ground and a higher strong, potentially damaging, wind. These storms are stronger than pop up summer storms, but still difficult to predict. Here is what we know right now...

• Strong storms are possible on Saturday Afternoon

• Machine Learning (Ai) Guidance suggests a 15% risk of severe weather, within a 25 mile point of any location. While this does not seem high, this is a rather impressive signal for so far out.

• Exact hazards remain uncertain, but given a higher chance of a more linear mode, I expect a risk of damaging wind to be to main threats. However, hail and tornadoes are still very far possible given the uncertainties left.

• Storms will be short in nature, with likely only around an hour of severe weather for the entire day Saturday

• Be prepared to take action should any severe weather approach the area!

How could this affect your plans? Let's take a dive into how long impacts are expected.

Length of Dangerous Weather...

I know many of you may have weekend plans. You may be wondering, do I need to cancel my plans for Saturday? The short answer is No. Linear storms are typically not storms that last all day, rather shorter, hour long storms. These storms are known to travel in bands, and are frequently called Squall Lines. I anticipate we may see one or two of these, with the potential of storms taking up around an hour. The rest of the day should generally have good conditions to be outside, as it I'll be warm with, hopefully, a few breaks of sunshine!

Recap...

Let's recap...

Severe weather is possible this weekend across our area, with strong winds being the main concern at this time. The main culprit of this is a new pattern change entering the area. Remember, this is still few days out, and the forecast will absolutely change. Keep an eye on your favorite source of weather for up to date information on hazards this weekend. Also remember, not all day will be stormy, just an hour or maybe a few hours. Don't cancel all your plans just yet, keep an eye on future forecasts. Enjoy the rest of this week while we have pretty, warm conditions across the area!

Author: Remington Diedrich